A Poisson geometric process approach for predicting drop-out and committed first-time blood donors
W.Y. Wan and
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2014, vol. 41, issue 7, 1486-1503
A Poisson geometric process (PGP) model is proposed to study individual blood donation patterns for a blood donor retention program. Extended from the geometric process (GP) model of Lam , the PGP model captures the rather pronounced trend patterns across clusters of donors via the ratio parameters in a mixture setting. Within the state-space modeling framework, it allows for overdispersion by equating the mean of the Poisson data distribution to a latent GP. Alternatively, by simply setting, the mean of the Poisson distribution to be the mean of a GP, it has equidispersion. With the group-specific mean and ratio functions, the mixture PGP model facilitates classification of donors into committed, drop-out and one-time groups. Based on only two years of observations, the PGP model nicely predicts donors' future donations to foster timely recruitment decision. The model is implemented using a Bayesian approach via the user-friendly software WinBUGS.
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