Point process models for COVID-19 cases and deaths

Álvaro Gajardo and Hans-Georg Müller

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2023, vol. 50, issue 11-12, 2294-2309

Abstract: The study of events distributed over time which can be quantified as point processes has attracted much interest over the years due to its wide range of applications. It has recently gained new relevance due to the COVID-19 case and death processes associated with SARS-CoV-2 that characterize the COVID-19 pandemic and are observed across different countries. It is of interest to study the behavior of these point processes and how they may be related to covariates such as mobility restrictions, gross domestic product per capita, and fraction of population of older age. As infections and deaths in a region are intrinsically events that arrive at random times, a point process approach is natural for this setting. We adopt techniques for conditional functional point processes that target point processes as responses with vector covariates as predictors, to study the interaction and optimal transport between case and death processes and doubling times conditional on covariates.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2021.1907839

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