EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Hot-spots detection in count data by Poisson assisted smooth sparse tensor decomposition

Yujie Zhao, Xiaoming Huo and Yajun Mei

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2023, vol. 50, issue 14, 2999-3029

Abstract: Count data occur widely in many bio-surveillance and healthcare applications, e.g. the numbers of new patients of different types of infectious diseases from different cities/counties/states repeatedly over time, say, daily/weekly/monthly. For this type of count data, one important task is the quick detection and localization of hot-spots in terms of unusual infectious rates so that we can respond appropriately. In this paper, we develop a method called Poisson assisted Smooth Sparse Tensor Decomposition (PoSSTenD), which not only detect when hot-spots occur but also localize where hot-spots occur. The main idea of our proposed PoSSTenD method is articulated as follows. First, we represent the observed count data as a three-dimensional tensor including (1) a spatial dimension for location patterns, e.g. different cities/countries/states; (2) a temporal domain for time patterns, e.g. daily/weekly/monthly; (3) a categorical dimension for different types of data sources, e.g. different types of diseases. Second, we fit this tensor into a Poisson regression model, and then we further decompose the infectious rate into two components: smooth global trend and local hot-spots. Third, we detect when hot-spots occur by building a cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart and localize where hot-spots occur by their LASSO-type sparse estimation. The usefulness of our proposed methodology is validated through numerical simulation studies and a real-world dataset, which records the annual number of 10 different infectious diseases from 1993 to 2018 for 49 mainland states in the United States.

Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2022.2112557 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:japsta:v:50:y:2023:i:14:p:2999-3029

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CJAS20

DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2022.2112557

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Statistics is currently edited by Robert Aykroyd

More articles in Journal of Applied Statistics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-20
Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:50:y:2023:i:14:p:2999-3029