Forecasting economic growth by combining local linear and standard approaches

Marlon Fritz, Sarah Forstinger, Yuanhua Feng and Thomas Gries

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2025, vol. 52, issue 7, 1342-1360

Abstract: Today, developing economies are of major importance for global macroeconomic development. However, the empirical analysis and especially the forecasting of macroeconomic time series remain difficult due to a lack of sufficient data, data frequency, high volatility, and non-linear developments. These difficulties require more sophisticated approaches to obtain reliable forecasts. Therefore, we propose an improved forecasting method especially for growth data based on a data-driven local linear trend estimation with an extended iterative plug-in algorithm for determining the bandwidth endogenously. This approach allows a smooth trend estimation that takes care of temporary changes in trend processes. Further, the naïve random walk model is extended for forecasting by including a local linear, time-varying drift. We apply this method to GDP development for six developing and two advanced economies and compare different forecast combinations. The combinations that include the local linear approach and the random walk with a local linear trend improve forecasting accuracy and reduce variance.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2024.2424920

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