Aggregate development effectiveness and externally-valid extrapolation: a fourth principle for Agency-Wide Performance Measurement Systems?

Alessandra Garbero

Journal of Development Effectiveness, 2021, vol. 13, issue 2, 117-144

Abstract: Through Alignment, Attribution and intelligent Aggregation, the three core principles forming the basis of Agency-Wide Performance Measurement Systems, performance measurement systems that use impact assessments can make serious contribution to both accountability and lesson-learning. In this paper, we argue that Agencies would benefit by adding a fourth principle, namely ‘externally-valid extrapolation’, since Agencies should be concerned about obtaining rigorous impacts estimates that can be conducive to aggregate impact predictions. Extrapolation essentially means determining a metric of aggregate development effectiveness. Ensuring externally valid extrapolation requires that this metric is estimated based on a sufficiently large set of internally valid studies accompanied by an impact assessment research programme conceived within a framework that maximises external validity at portfolio level. We show how as part of the first impact assessment initiative at IFAD, which dates back to 2012, a methodology was devised to measure and project aggregate development effectiveness at portfolio level.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2021.1928733

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