Population aging, pensions, and vulnerability to multidimensional poverty

Lijin Liu

Journal of Development Effectiveness, 2025, vol. 17, issue 3, 416-428

Abstract: Increased ageing poses a considerable challenge to poverty eradication in developing countries. This paper first constructs poverty vulnerability from a multidimensional perspective, which predicts the probability that a household will fall into poverty in the future. And then, this paper explores the impact of pensions provided by China’s basic pension policy on vulnerability to multidimensional poverty based on regression discontinuity. The results of the study found that receiving a pension significantly reduces household’s vulnerability to multidimensional poverty, and the probability of a household falling into multidimensional poverty in the future is reduced. The conclusions remain unchanged after conducting various robustness checks. Besides, individual endowments such as health status and education level also significantly affect the vulnerability to multidimensional poverty of households. This study will help policymakers to proactively address poverty induced by ageing.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2025.2531373

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