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Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of the HIV Evolutionary Response to Therapy

Shane T. Jensen, Jared Park, Alexander F. Braunstein and Jon Mcauliffe

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2013, vol. 108, issue 504, 1230-1242

Abstract: A major challenge for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is the development of therapy-resistant strains. We present a statistical model that quantifies the evolution of HIV populations when exposed to particular therapies. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to estimate differences in rates of nucleotide changes between treatment- and control-group sequences. Each group's rates are allowed to vary spatially along the HIV genome. We employ a coalescent structure to address the sequence diversity within the treatment and control HIV populations. We evaluate the model in simulations and estimate HIV evolution in two different applications: a conventional drug therapy and an antisense gene therapy. In both studies, we detect evidence of evolutionary escape response in the HIV population. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2013.830449

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