GIRA: a general model for incident risk analysis

Aitor Couce-Vieira, David Rios Insua and Siv Hilde Houmb

Journal of Risk Research, 2019, vol. 22, issue 2, 191-208

Abstract: Most existing risk analysis methods focus on analysing risks that a system might face throughout its life. However, there is no explicit method for risk analysis during incidents. Approaches such as bow-ties and attack trees provide reliable information about triggers and escalation of incidents, but do not cover risk evaluation. Risk matrices include the entire risk analysis process; however, their risk evaluation approach is oversimplified. This paper presents a General Model for Incident Risk Analysis, which formalises the incident risk analysis process through an influence diagram. Our aim is to provide a decision support model that generates reliable risk information and enhances incident risk evaluation.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2017.1372509

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