Does the COVID-19 pandemic refute probability neglect?

Arkadiusz Sieroń

Journal of Risk Research, 2020, vol. 23, issue 7-8, 855-861

Abstract: Cass Sunstein coined the term ‘probability neglect’ to characterize the cognitive bias of disregarding probability when assessing low-probability but high-impact threats. He also related this cognitive bias to terrorism risk, andapplied the concept to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, I show that such claims are not justified. I argue that an alternative hypothesis could be that people who downplay the epidemiological threat and do not take precautionary measures suffer from exponential-growth bias. I also show that probability theory, and thus the concept of probability neglect, cannot be easily applied to real-world problems, such as terrorist attacks or pandemics, occurring in a non-ergodic, uncertain environment.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2020.1772346

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