Evaluating risk analyst views on uncertainty and knowledge aspects for risk characterization approaches

Shital Thekdi and Terje Aven

Journal of Risk Research, 2025, vol. 28, issue 8, 912-928

Abstract: The risk field has developed several divergent approaches to risk characterization. These approaches often involve probabilistic reasoning but also incorporate aspects of uncertainty, knowledge, and knowledge strength. This paper develops, reports, and discusses an empirical investigation of some selected common approaches. Based on some derived risk characterization statements, we seek risk analyst opinions on which statements are most preferred, informative, trustworthy, and justified. The results from this investigation show that the most appropriate characterizations include aspects of uncertainty and knowledge-strength judgments beyond pure probabilistic formulations. We argue that aspects of knowledge and uncertainty can be prevalent at an explicit and implicit level, and further understanding of those components is essential for addressing rising complexities in risk studies as well as to facilitate risk communication and governance regimes. We leverage the findings to develop key insights and considerations for future risk research and practice. This paper and its insights will be of interest to risk analysts, decision-makers, and policymakers.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2025.2553847

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