Section 2. Background and dynamics of the scenarios

Angela Wilkinson, Shirin Elahi and Esther Eidinow

Journal of Risk Research, 2003, vol. 6, issue 4-6, 365-401

Abstract: This section contains a description of the dynamics leading to the three Riskworld scenarios. It comprises an introduction and four subsections: 1. Following a brief introduction, we reflect on the history of risk perception and management, using this to explore the changing meaning of risk, and to highlight the importance of considering social context when thinking about risk. 2. We then explain recent attempts to conceptualise risk as a dynamic concept, alongside the growing appreciation of the developing context of bewildering complexity. It is suggested that a new risk paradigm is emerging. 3. The context of bewildering complexity and increasing uncertainty, as we go on to show, results from a combination of many different forces. We highlight four key drivers of change: ” Increasing global interconnectivity ” The atomisation of society ” Ability to monitor and measure ” Technology 4. Our current environment introduces and increases our awareness of new types of risk - but traditional riskmanagement tools are struggling to cope with them. 5. There is a need, in many cases, to think of risk as a holistic and dynamic concept and about risk management in a way that highlights resilience and adaptive management. 6. We go on to outline the range of factors and critical uncertainties that might influence societal risk perception and management over the next 20 years.

Date: 2003
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1366987032000109285 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:6:y:2003:i:4-6:p:365-401

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RJRR20

DOI: 10.1080/1366987032000109285

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Risk Research is currently edited by Bryan MacGregor

More articles in Journal of Risk Research from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().