Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies

Nicolas Savio and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos

International Journal of Public Administration, 2010, vol. 33, issue 2, 88-97

Abstract: Primarily, policies are intended to address economic, social and environmental problems. When implementing a policy, any government will be faced with the decision as to what strategy to adopt in order to meet the objectives set out by the policy in the most cost effective way. Several such Policy Implementation Strategies (PIS) may be available, making such a decision not so straightforward. With limited funds available, such a decision has particular importance for budgeting. This paper proposes forecasting PIS effectiveness as a decision support tool. The nature of Structured Analogies (SA) is considered suitable for generating such forecasts. A simpler version of SA, semi-structured analogies (S-SA), where experts do not need to recollect the exact outcome of analogies, is tested. Empirical findings suggest that in the hands of non-experts, the S-SA approach improves forecast accuracy when compared to unaided judgment. Accuracy improves further when forecasts are produced in groups.

Date: 2010
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01900690903241765 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:lpadxx:v:33:y:2010:i:2:p:88-97

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/lpad20

DOI: 10.1080/01900690903241765

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Public Administration is currently edited by Ali Farazmand

More articles in International Journal of Public Administration from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().