Multiple Streams and Plausibility Cones: Using Concepts from Future Studies to Depict Policy Dynamics

Andrea Migone and Michael Howlett

International Journal of Public Administration, 2025, vol. 48, issue 5-6, 368-380

Abstract: Anticipating the future is a highly uncertain but essential task in policy-making made complex by the existence of both linear and non-linear policy dynamics. One framework which is useful in anticipating both kinds of change is the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) which has expanded from looking mainly at aspects of policy-making such as agenda-setting to depicting other complex activities related to policy implementation and administration among others. Precisely how longer-term policy dynamics can be viewed through the MSF framework, however, remains unclear. This article re-examines common depictions of policy trajectories and argues that using a concept borrowed from Future Studies - the “plausibility cone” – can fill this gap in MSF modelling and help both policy-makers and policy scholars better understand likely and unlikely possible policy futures.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/01900692.2024.2381769

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