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Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee (), Salman Huseynov and Rustam Jamilov

Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 2014, vol. 7, issue 1, 83-98

Abstract: This paper estimates the J-curve for Azerbaijan using quarterly industry-level data over the 2000--2009 period. Empirical results show that in 3 of the 10 strategic industries there is strong evidence for the fulfilment of the Marshall--Lerner condition, as the trade balance improves in the long run in reaction to a currency devaluation. In most industries the J-curve pattern is observed in the short run. All 10 cases exhibit long-run cointegration and are stable according to the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests. These findings are largely consistent with the existing literature on the Azerbaijani J-curve and carry important policy implications.

Date: 2014
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