Conflict Inflation and the Role of Monetary Policy

Pedro Clavijo-Cortes

Review of Political Economy, 2024, vol. 36, issue 4, 1486-1509

Abstract: The aim of this study is twofold: on the one hand, to provide evidence of the positive association between the inflation rate and the labor share in the US; on the other, to show that monetary policy slows inflation by depressing the labor share. With the help of Bayesian econometrics, the paper shows evidence of a conflict Phillips curve. Furthermore, a structural vector autoregressive model reveals the detrimental effects of interest rate hikes on the labor share. Together, these results mean the monetary policy of administered interest rates resolves the class conflict in favor of capital to control inflation. Scrutiny of the US monetary policy development and a model of a controlled predator-prey system prepare the way for the empirical sections. Finally, the paper concludes that controlling the distributive conflict matters for impinging on inflation and that the Fed might follow alternative monetary rules to cease being the third party participating in the distributive conflict.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2024.2336513

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