On the Determinants of Democratic Transitions

Caroline Freund () and Melise Jaud

Middle East Development Journal, 2013, vol. 5, issue 1, 1350005-1-1350005-30

Abstract: 90 countries have changed regimes in the last half century. Of these, 46% experienced a successful transition to democracy, 39% failed, and 15% moved gradually to democracy. In this paper, we explore the initial conditions associated with transition and with its success. We find that gender equality, natural resources, conflict, a military government, and urbanization significantly affect the likelihood of regime change and the durability of democracy. Contagion effects from experiences in neighboring countries are also important determinants of success. The results offer insights into what we can expect from the ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500053

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