The uncertainty recovery analysis for interdependent infrastructure systems using the dynamic inoperability input–output model

Wenping Xu, Zongjun Wang, Liu Hong, Ligang He and Xueguang Chen

International Journal of Systems Science, 2015, vol. 46, issue 7, 1299-1306

Abstract: In this paper, an innovatory modelling framework is proposed to conduct the uncertainty recovery analysis for the interdependent infrastructure sectors based on the dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM). The DIIM captures the inoperability of infrastructure systems, and therefore can easily analyse how perturbations propagate among interconnected infrastructures and how to implement effective mitigation efforts after a disaster. In this paper, based on the random recovery time distribution, we apply the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the distributions of the economic losses for the critical interdependent infrastructure sectors after a disaster. The proposed method can provide the decision-makers the guidance in making suitable risk-management decisions as well as how the risks can be mitigated, if the disaster cannot be avoided to happen in the first place.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/00207721.2013.822121

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