Determining the optimal decision time of relief allocation in response to disaster via relief demand updates

Sha-lei Zhan and Nan Liu

International Journal of Systems Science, 2016, vol. 47, issue 3, 509-520

Abstract: Relief allocation has recently attracted increased interest in research. Most studies in the literature have not focused on the trade-off between demand forecast accuracy and relief allocation efficiency. Thus, we employ the Bayesian updating framework, which allows the decision-maker to postpone his decision until sufficient accurate demand information is available. Different from the previous studies, we propose a novel method of relief demand updating, and devise a lost function as a function of time delay. Then, we develop a relief allocation model as an optimal stopping problem, to determine the optimal delay in response to typhoon disaster. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a case of post-disaster rescue. The computational results indicate the potential advantages of the model.

Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1080/00207721.2014.891665

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