Bayesian analysis models for aviation baggage screening

Qianmei (May) Feng, Hande Sahin and Marvin Karson

IISE Transactions, 2009, vol. 41, issue 11, 995-1006

Abstract: This paper not only develops Bayesian analysis models for addressing both single-level and sequential multiple-level baggage screening problems but also provides a new perspective on the design and evaluation of aviation security systems. Using the Bayesian approach, the operator's prior knowledge about the status of a bag is incorporated with present data. The posterior distributions for single-level and multiple-level screenings are developed, respectively. To evaluate the performance for Bayesian screening, two metrics are introduced and implemented: (i) system risk bounded to the posterior mean of undetected threats; and (ii) system direct cost per bag that incorporates purchasing costs, operating costs and processing rates. By evaluating the trade-off between system risk and system cost, this paper assesses different screening technologies and combinations of them for single-level and two-level systems. The findings from numerical analyses provide recommendations for cost-effective selections of technologies with low risk levels.[Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of IIE Transactions for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix]

Date: 2009
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DOI: 10.1080/07408170902906043

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