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Rational expectation of mistakes and a measure of error-proneness

Shaowei Ke

Theoretical Economics, 2018, vol. 13, issue 2

Abstract: We characterize axiomatically a stochastic choice model, the Consistent-Mistakes Model (CMM), that describes an error-prone decision maker's choices. In contrast to random utility models, CMMs generate closed-form choice probability. Under the axioms, we uniquely identify from the choices an expected utility function that represents the decision maker's true preference and a propensity function that describes how likely an alternative is to be chosen. We introduce a measure of error-proneness and show that the logit model of mistakes is a CMM with a constant measure of error-proneness, characterized by a strong version of the independence axiom from expected utility theory. We analyze the properties of models of mistakes.

Keywords: Stochastic choice; error-proneness; logit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-05-29
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