A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France

Clark, Andrew; Lepinteur, Anthony

A Natural Experiment on Job Insecurity and Fertility in France

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, vol. 104, issue 2, 386-398

Abstract: Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labor market. A 1999 rise in the French layoff tax paid by large private firms when they laid off older workers made younger workers less secure; this insecurity reduced their fertility by 3.7 percentage points (with a 95% confidence interval between 0.7 and 6.6 percentage points). Reduced fertility is found only at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.

Date: 2022
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