Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers

Matteo Cacciatore and Nora Traum

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, vol. 104, issue 6, 1206-1223

Abstract: We present novel insights on the role of international trade following unanticipated fiscal changes in a flexible exchange rate environment. We show analytically that fiscal multipliers can be larger in economies more open to trade, even when fiscal expansions imply trade deficits. Three factors determine how trade linkages matter: the relative import share of public and private goods, the financing of government debt, and the currency invoicing of exports. A Bayesian prior-predictive analysis shows that a quantitative model bears the same predictions. Conditioning on Canadian and U.S. data, we find support for larger multipliers relative to a counterfactually closed economy.

Date: 2022
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Working Paper: Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers (2020)
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