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Doing More with Less: Predicting Primary Care Provider Effectiveness

Janet Currie and Jonathan Zhang
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Janet Currie: Princeton University
Jonathan Zhang: Duke University and Veterans Health Administration

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2025, vol. 107, issue 2, 289-305

Abstract: We use data from the Veterans Administration to examine the efficacy of primary care providers (PCPs). Leveraging quasi-random assignment of veterans to PCPs, we measure effectiveness using ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) and hospitalizations/emergency department (ED) visits for mental health or circulatory conditions. PCPs’ variation along these dimensions predicts future outcomes. For example, a 1 standard deviation improvement in mental health effectiveness reduces patient risk of death by 3.8% and lowers costs by 4.4% over the next three years. More effective PCPs do more with less: their patients have fewer primary care visits, specialist referrals, lab panels, or imaging tests.

Date: 2025
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https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01290

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The Review of Economics and Statistics is currently edited by Pierre Azoulay, Olivier Coibion, Will Dobbie, Raymond Fisman, Benjamin R. Handel, Brian A. Jacob, Kareen Rozen, Xiaoxia Shi, Tavneet Suri and Yi Xu

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