Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection

Robert Shiller, Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui ()

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, vol. 78, issue 1, 156-64

Abstract: Why did the Japanese stock market lose most of its value between 1989 and 1992? To help answer this and related questions, the authors have collected parallel time-series data from market participants in both Japan and the United States, 1989-94, on their expectations, attitudes, and theories. Substantial variability within countries through time in these data and, notably, dramatic differences across countries in expectations were found. While no unambiguous explanation of the Japanese crash emerges from the results, the authors do find a clear relation of the crash to changes in Japanese price expectations and speculative strategies. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

Date: 1996
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