Details about Robert J. Shiller

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://robertshiller.com
Phone:	203 432-3708
Postal address:	Cowles Foundation, Yale University 30 Hillhouse Ave. New Haven CT 06520-8281
Workplace:	Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC) Economics Department, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC) School of Management, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Robert J. Shiller.

Last updated 2019-02-09. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: psh69

---

Jump to Journal Articles Books Chapters

Working Papers

2022

1. Crash Narratives
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

2020

2. Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)

2019

3. Narratives about Technology-Induced Job Degradations Then and Now
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)

2017

4. Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient Pricing and Systemic Implications
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)
5. Narrative Economics
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (46)
   Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2017) View citations (46)
   See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2017)

2016

6. Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
7. Popular Attitudes Towards Markets and Democracy: Russia and United States Compared 25 Years Later
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2016)

2015

8. What Have They Been Thinking" Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets -- A 2014 Update
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)

2014

9. Biographical
   Nobel Prize in Economics documents, Nobel Prize Committee
10. Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
11. Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (95)
12. Why Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage"
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2014)

2013

13. Interview with 2013 Laureate in Economic Sciences Robert J. Shiller
    Nobel Prize in Economics documents, Nobel Prize Committee
14. Reflections on Finance and the Good Society
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2013)
15. Speculative Asset Prices
    Nobel Prize in Economics documents, Nobel Prize Committee View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2014)
16. Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (76)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2012) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in Critical Finance Review (2013)

2012

17. Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley View citations (58)
    Also in Economics Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley (2001) View citations (280)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2001) View citations (123)
    Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy (2005) View citations (642)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2001) View citations (136)
    Department of Economics, Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley (2001) View citations (127)
    See also Journal Article in The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2005)
18. What Have They Been Thinking" Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (86)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2012) View citations (86)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2012)

2011

19. Continuous Workout Mortgages
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (6)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (5)
20. Economists as Worldly Philosophers
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2011)
21. Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation and Crises
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of the History of Economic Thought (2013)
22. Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (28)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2011) View citations (12)

2009

23. The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (16)
24. Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (44)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (61)
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics (2009) View citations (61)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2009)

2008

25. Derivatives Markets for Home Prices
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (43)
    Also in Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics (2008) View citations (43)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2008) View citations (45)

2007

26. Historic Turning Points in Real Estate
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article in Eastern Economic Journal (2008)
27. Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
    Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics View citations (24)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2007)
28. Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Models
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (23)
29. Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (192)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2007) View citations (192)
    Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics (2007) View citations (198)
    See also Journal Article in Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole (2007)

2006

30. Asset prices, monetary policy, and bank regulation
    Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

2005

31. Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (17)
32. The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: A Review
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (13)
33. The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (18)

2004

34. Household Reaction to Changes in Housing Wealth
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (6)
35. Radical Financial Innovation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (4)
36. World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center (1995) View citations (1)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1995) View citations (21)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1997)

2003

37. Home-buyers, Housing and the Macroeconomy
    Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy View citations (28)
    See also Chapter (2003)
38. One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (4)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2002) View citations (2)
39. The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (13)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2003) View citations (12)

2002

40. From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Perspectives (2003)

2001

41. Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (12)
42. Defining Residual Risk-Sharing Opportunities: Pooling World Income Components
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    See also Journal Article in Research in Economics (2002)
43. The Significance of the Market Portfolio
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1997) View citations (4)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1997) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Financial Studies (2000)
44. Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (158)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2001) View citations (145)

1999

45. Designing Indexed Units of Account
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1998) View citations (1)
    See also Chapter (2006)
46. Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems
    Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999)
47. Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (20)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1999) View citations (15)
48. World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2001)

1998

49. Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (38)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1998) View citations (27)
    See also Chapter (1999)
50. Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile View citations (12)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1998) View citations (12)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) View citations (13)
    See also Chapter (2002)
51. Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1998) View citations (10)
52. Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational and International Risk Sharing
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (21)
    Also in JCPR Working Papers, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research (1998) View citations (8)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1998) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1999)

1997

53. Expanding the Scope of Individual Risk Management: Moral Hazard and Other Behavioral Considerations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)

1996

54. A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data
    Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research View citations (22)
55. A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (87)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1996) View citations (87)
    See also Chapter (1996)
56. Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (66)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1996) View citations (80)
    See also Chapter (1997)

1995

57. Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (90)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1995)
58. Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management
    Working Papers, Yale - Economic Growth Center View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1995) View citations (2)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1995) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Income and Wealth (1998)
59. Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1995) View citations (11)

1994

60. Hedging inflation and income risks
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies (1995)
61. Home Equity Insurance
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (9)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1994) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (1999)

1993

62. Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (14)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1993) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (1995)
63. Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures indices and Perpetual Futures
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (41)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1992) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (1993)

1992

64. Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection: The U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)

1991

65. Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1991) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Economic Papers (1993)
66. Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (96)
67. Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (27)
68. Speculative Behavior in the Stock Markets: Evidence from the United States and Japan
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (9)
69. Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (820)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1989) View citations (296)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Studies (1991)

1990

70. Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (223)
    See also Journal Article in Real Estate Economics (1990)
71. Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (6)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1990) View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1991)
72. Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (4)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1990) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1992)

1989

73. Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (77)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (1989)

1988

74. Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) View citations (5)
75. Initial Public Offerings: Investor Behavior and Underpricing
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
76. Interpreting Cointegrated Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (71)
    Also in Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics (1988) View citations (79)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (1988)
77. Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: The Case of Japan
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of the Japanese and International Economies (1991)
78. STOCK PRICES, EARNINGS AND EXPECTED DIVIDENDS
    Working Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program View citations (818)
    Also in Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics (1988) View citations (912)
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1988) View citations (894)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) View citations (834)
79. The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (131)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) View citations (127)
    See also Journal Article in New England Economic Review (1988)
80. The Dividend Ratio Model and Small Sample Bias: A Monte Carlo Study
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1989)
81. The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (166)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1989)
82. The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1988) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1989)

1987

83. Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (1181)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1986) View citations (6)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1986) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1987)
84. Investor Behavior in the 1987-10 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (14)
85. Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (120)
86. Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (257)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) View citations (235)
    See also Journal Article in New England Economic Review (1987)
87. The Term Structure of Interest Rates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (40)
    See also Chapter (1990)
88. The Term Structure of Interest Rates. U.S. Government Term Structure Data
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (6)
89. Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (7)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1987) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1987)

1986

90. Speculative Behavior of Institutional Investors
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
91. Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (6)
92. Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
93. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (5)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1986) View citations (55)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Financial Studies (1988)

1985

94. Conventional Valuation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
95. Estimating the Continuous Time Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1987)
96. Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (299)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1984) View citations (30)
    See also Journal Article in Economics Letters (1985)

1984

97. A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
    Scholarly Articles, Harvard University Department of Economics View citations (50)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1983) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1984)
98. Stock Prices and Social Dynamics
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (453)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1984)

1983

99. Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (303)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1983)

1982

100. Consumption, Asset Markets, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (58)
     See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1982)
101. Smoothness Priors and Nonlinear Regression
     NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)

1981

102. Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (25)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Financial Economics (1982)

1980

103. Alternative Tests of Rational Expectations Models: The Case of the Term Structure
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (1981)
104. Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (298)
     See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1981)
105. The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (165)
     Also in Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research View citations (13)
     See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1981)
106. The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (39)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Finance (1981)

1979

107. Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
     See also Chapter (1980)

1975

108. Alternative Prior Representations of Smoothness for Distributed Lag Estimation
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
109. Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review
     NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
     See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1978)

1971

110. Estimation of the investment and price equations of a macroeconometric model
     Staff Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Journal Articles

2018

1. НАРРАТИВНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И НЕЙРОЭКОНОМИКА // NARRATIVE ECONOMICS AND NEUROECONOMICS
   Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, 2018, 22, (1), 64-91

2017

2. Economic risks associated with deep change in technology, and their mitigation
   Journal of Policy Modeling, 2017, 39, (4), 616-624 View citations (1)
3. Narrative Economics
   American Economic Review, 2017, 107, (4), 967-1004 View citations (146)
   See also Working Paper (2017)

2016

4. Foreword
   American Economic Review, 2016, 106, (5), xi-xii
5. Manipulation and Deception as Part of a Phishing Equilibrium
   Business Economics, 2016, 51, (4), 207-212 View citations (1)
6. Popular Attitudes toward Markets and Democracy: Russia and United States Compared 25 Years Later
   American Economic Review, 2016, 106, (5), 224-29 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper (2016)

2014

7. Speculative Asset Prices
   American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (6), 1486-1517 View citations (107)
   See also Working Paper (2013)
8. Why Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage?
   American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (5), 73-76 View citations (18)
   See also Working Paper (2014)

2013

9. Aligning Incentives at Systemically Important Financial Institutions: A Proposal by the Squam Lake Group
   Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2013, 25, (4), 37-40 View citations (6)
10. Book Review
    FINANCIAL REPORTING, 2013, 2013/1, (1), 187-195
11. Finance Contributing to the Good Society
    Business Economics, 2013, 48, (1), 77-80 View citations (13)
12. IRVING FISHER, DEBT DEFLATION, AND CRISES
    Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2013, 35, (2), 179-183
    See also Working Paper (2011)
13. Mitigating financial fragility with Continuous Workout Mortgages
    Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2013, 85, (C), 269-285 View citations (16)
14. Reflections on Finance and the Good Society
    American Economic Review, 2013, 103, (3), 402-05 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
15. Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012
    Critical Finance Review, 2013, 2, (1), 101-128 View citations (76)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2012

16. A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives
    European Financial Management, 2012, 18, (5), 762-789 View citations (15)
17. What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2012, 43, (2 (Fall)), 265-315 View citations (176)
    See also Working Paper (2012)

2011

18. Economists as Worldly Philosophers
    American Economic Review, 2011, 101, (3), 171-75 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (2011)

2010

19. How Should the Financial Crisis Change How We Teach Economics?
    The Journal of Economic Education, 2010, 41, (4), 403-409 View citations (23)
20. Property Derivatives for Managing European Real†Estate Risk
    European Financial Management, 2010, 16, (1), 8-26 View citations (5)
21. The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System
    Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 2010, 22, (3), 8-21 View citations (116)
    See also Book (2010)
22. Trills Instead of T-Bills: It's Time to Replace Part of Government Debt with Shares in GDP
    The Economists' Voice, 2010, 7, (3), 1-5 View citations (6)

2009

23. Policies to Deal with the Implosion in the Mortgage Market
    The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2009, 9, (3), 1-25 View citations (8)
24. Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009, 40, (1 (Spring)), 79-138 View citations (67)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
25. Unlearned Lessons from the Housing Bubble
    The Economists' Voice, 2009, 6, (7), 1-2 View citations (14)

2008

26. Historic Turning Points in Real Estate
    Eastern Economic Journal, 2008, 34, (1), 1-13 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
27. The Case for Trills: Giving Canadians and their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation
    C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, 2008, (271) View citations (5)

2007

28. Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Economic Models
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007, 38, (2), 111-134 View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
29. Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2007, 89-123 View citations (125)
    See also Working Paper (2007)

2006

30. Life-cycle personal accounts proposal for Social Security: An evaluation of President Bush's proposal
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 2006, 28, (4), 427-444 View citations (10)
31. Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices
    The Economists' Voice, 2006, 3, (4), 1-11 View citations (50)
32. Tools for Financial Innovation: Neoclassical versus Behavioral Finance
    The Financial Review, 2006, 41, (1), 1-8 View citations (6)

2005

33. Comments on John Geanakoplos's “The Ideal Inflation‐Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest with Overlapping Generations”
    American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 2005, 64, (1), 307-310
34. Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2005, 5, (1), 1-34 View citations (678)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
35. Life-Cycle Portfolios as Government Policy
    The Economists' Voice, 2005, 2, (1), 1-9 View citations (7)
36. Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market
    Economic Inquiry, 2005, 43, (2), 221-228 View citations (25)

2003

37. From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003, 17, (1), 83-104 View citations (396)
    See also Working Paper (2002)
38. Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003, 34, (2), 299-362 View citations (599)
39. Social Security and Individual Accounts as Elements of Overall Risk-Sharing
    American Economic Review, 2003, 93, (2), 343-347 View citations (22)

2002

40. Defining residual risk-sharing opportunities: Pooling world income components
    Research in Economics, 2002, 56, (1), 61-84
    See also Working Paper (2001)

2001

41. World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities
    American Economic Review, 2001, 91, (4), 1031-1054 View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper (1999)

2000

42. The Significance of the Market Portfolio
    Review of Financial Studies, 2000, 13, (2), 301-29 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper (2001)

1999

43. Evaluating Real Estate Valuation Systems
    The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1999, 18, (2), 147-61 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
44. Home Equity Insurance
    The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1999, 19, (1), 21-47 View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper (1994)
45. Macro markets and financial security
    Economic Policy Review, 1999, 5, (Apr), 21-39 View citations (17)
46. Social security and institutions for intergenerational, intragenerational, and international risk-sharing
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1999, 50, (1), 165-204 View citations (65)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
47. THE ET INTERVIEW: PROFESSOR JAMES TOBIN
    Econometric Theory, 1999, 15, (6), 867-900 View citations (4)

1998

48. LABOR INCOME INDICES DESIGNED FOR USE IN CONTRACTS PROMOTING INCOME RISK MANAGEMENT
    Review of Income and Wealth, 1998, 44, (2), 163-182 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (1995)

1997

49. Public Resistance to Indexation: A Puzzle
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997, 28, (1), 159-228 View citations (38)

1996

50. Why Did the Nikkei Crash? Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 78, (1), 156-64 View citations (66)

1995

51. Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms
    The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 1995, 35, (2), 119-152 View citations (21)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
52. Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior
    American Economic Review, 1995, 85, (2), 181-85 View citations (87)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
53. Hedging Inflation and Income Risks
    The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, 1995, 63, 1-21
    See also Working Paper (1994)

1994

54. A decade of boom and bust in the prices of single-family homes: Boston and Los Angeles, 1983 to 1993
    New England Economic Review, 1994, (Mar), 40-51 View citations (16)

1993

55. Actual and Warranted Relations between Asset Prices
    Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 45, (3), 387-402 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper (1991)
56. Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures
    Journal of Finance, 1993, 48, (3), 911-31 View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
57. The theory of index-based futures and options markets
    Estudios Económicos, 1993, 8, (2), 163-178 View citations (15)
58. Une décennie de boom et d'effondrement des prix immobiliers: Boston et Los Angeles, 1983-1993
    Revue d'Économie Financière, 1993, 3, (1), 389-408

1992

59. Hunting for Homo Sovieticus: Situational versus Attitudinal Factors in Economic Behavior
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1992, 23, (1), 127-194 View citations (38)
60. Stock prices and bond yields: Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1992, 30, (1), 25-46 View citations (141)
    See also Working Paper (1990)

1991

61. Investor behavior in the october 1987 stock market crash: The case of Japan
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1991, 5, (1), 1-13 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
62. Popular Attitudes toward Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared
    American Economic Review, 1991, 81, (3), 385-400 View citations (67)
    See also Working Paper (1990)
63. Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View
    Review of Economic Studies, 1991, 58, (3), 495-514 View citations (690)
    See also Working Paper (1991)

1990

64. A Scott-Type Regression Test of the Dividend Ratio Model
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1990, 72, (2), 356-61 View citations (3)
65. Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models
    American Economic Review, 1990, 80, (3), 375-89 View citations (241)
66. Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
    Real Estate Economics, 1990, 18, (3), 253-273 View citations (228)
    See also Working Paper (1990)
67. Market Volatility and Investor Behavior
    American Economic Review, 1990, 80, (2), 58-62 View citations (88)
68. Reply to Steindl and Ugarte
    Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 1990, 12, (4), 561-563
69. Speculative Prices and Popular Models
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1990, 4, (2), 55-65 View citations (128)

1989

70. Business cycles, financial crises, and stock volatility: A comment
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1989, 31, (1), 127-132 View citations (1)
71. Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
    Journal of Finance, 1989, 44, (3), 719-729 View citations (74)
    See also Working Paper (1989)
72. Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors
    Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1989, 12, (1), 47-66 View citations (156)
73. The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes
    American Economic Review, 1989, 79, (1), 125-37 View citations (762)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
74. The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 71, (2), 325-31 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
75. The dividend ratio model and small sample bias: A Monte Carlo study
    Economics Letters, 1989, 29, (4), 325-331 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (1988)

1988

76. Causes of changing financial market volatility
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 1988, 1-32 View citations (3)
77. Interpreting cointegrated models
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1988, 12, (2-3), 505-522 View citations (80)
    See also Working Paper (1988)
78. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
    Review of Financial Studies, 1988, 1, (3), 195-228 View citations (1683)
    See also Working Paper (1986)
79. The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality
    Journal of Political Economy, 1988, 96, (5), 1089-92 View citations (9)
80. The Volatility Debate
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1988, 70, (5), 1057-1063 View citations (2)
81. The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets
    New England Economic Review, 1988, (Nov), 29-46 View citations (141)
    See also Working Paper (1988)

1987

82. Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
    Journal of Political Economy, 1987, 95, (5), 1062-88 View citations (1179)
    See also Working Paper (1987)
83. Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based Asset-Pricing Model
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1987, 5, (3), 315-27 View citations (61)
    See also Working Paper (1985)
84. Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities
    New England Economic Review, 1987, (Sep), 45-56 View citations (248)
    See also Working Paper (1987)
85. Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability
    American Economic Review, 1987, 77, (2), 87-92 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (1987)

1986

86. Comments [Behavioral Rationality in Finance: The Case of Dividends] [Anomalies in Financial Economics: Blueprint for Change?]
    The Journal of Business, 1986, 59, (4), S501-05
87. The Marsh-Merton Model of Managers' Smoothing of Dividends
    American Economic Review, 1986, 76, (3), 499-503 View citations (8)

1985

88. An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility: Discussion
    Journal of Finance, 1985, 40, (3), 688-89 View citations (1)
89. Testing the random walk hypothesis: Power versus frequency of observation
    Economics Letters, 1985, 18, (4), 381-386 View citations (304)
    See also Working Paper (1985)

1984

90. A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
    American Economic Review, 1984, 74, (2), 44-48 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper (1984)
91. Stock Prices and Social Dynamics
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1984, 15, (2), 457-510 View citations (459)
    See also Working Paper (1984)

1983

92. Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?: Reply
    American Economic Review, 1983, 73, (1), 236-37 View citations (7)
93. Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1983, 14, (1), 173-224 View citations (330)
    See also Working Paper (1983)

1982

94. Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information
    Journal of Financial Economics, 1982, 10, (2), 195-210 View citations (71)
    See also Working Paper (1981)
95. Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1982, 17, (1), 203-238 View citations (58)
    See also Working Paper (1982)

1981

96. Alternative tests of rational expectations models: The case of the term structure
    Journal of Econometrics, 1981, 16, (1), 71-87 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper (1980)
97. Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?
    American Economic Review, 1981, 71, (3), 421-36 View citations (1628)
    See also Working Paper (1980)
98. The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
    American Economic Review, 1981, 71, (2), 222-27 View citations (280)
    See also Working Paper (1980)
99. The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency
    Journal of Finance, 1981, 36, (2), 291-304 View citations (116)
    See also Working Paper (1980)

1979

100. Coupon and tax effects on new and seasoned bond yields and the measurement of the cost of debt capital
     Journal of Financial Economics, 1979, 7, (3), 297-318 View citations (7)
101. The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure
     Journal of Political Economy, 1979, 87, (6), 1190-1219 View citations (387)

1978

102. Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models: A critical review
     Journal of Monetary Economics, 1978, 4, (1), 1-44 View citations (82)
     See also Working Paper (1975)

1977

103. The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates
     Journal of Political Economy, 1977, 85, (5), 891-907 View citations (36)

1973

104. A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors
     Econometrica, 1973, 41, (4), 775-88 View citations (61)
105. Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment
     Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1973, 5, (3), 856-60 View citations (20)

Books

2015

1. Irrational Exuberance
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (180)
2. Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (148)

2012

3. Finance and the Good Society
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (90)
4. The Subprime Solution: How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It: With a new preface by the author
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (12)

2011

5. Reforming U.S. Financial Markets, vol 1
   MIT Press Books, The MIT Press View citations (12)

2010

6. Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (180)
7. The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System
   Economics Books, Princeton University Press View citations (105)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Corporate Finance (2010)

1998

8. Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks
   OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press View citations (40)

1992

9. Market Volatility, vol 1
   MIT Press Books, The MIT Press View citations (41)

Chapters

2015

1. The Stock Market in Historical Perspective
   A chapter in Irrational Exuberance, 2015 View citations (1)

2012

2. Introduction
   A chapter in The Subprime Solution: How Today’s Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It: With a new preface by the author, 2012
3. Introduction: Finance, Stewardship, and Our Goals
   A chapter in Finance and the Good Society, 2012

2010

4. Introduction
   A chapter in The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System, 2010
5. Introduction
   A chapter in Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, 2010

2006

6. Designing Indexed Units of Account
   Chapter 11 in Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, 2006
   See also Working Paper (1999)

2005

7. Comments on session 'Aggregation issues', David Fenwick, Chair, with three papers
   A chapter in Real estate indicators and financial stability, 2005, vol. 21, pp 336-339

2003

8. Home-buyers, Housing and the Macroeconomy
   A chapter in Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, 2003 View citations (29)
   See also Working Paper (2003)

2002

9. Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience
   Chapter 4 in Indexation, Inflation and Monetary Policy, 2002, vol. 2, pp 105-134 View citations (17)
   See also Working Paper (1998)

1999

10. Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system
    Chapter 20 in Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1999, vol. 1, Part C, pp 1305-1340 View citations (92)
    See also Working Paper (1998)

1997

11. Why Do People Dislike Inflation?
    A chapter in Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, 1997, pp 13-70 View citations (109)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1996

12. A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, 1996, pp 155-208 View citations (84)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1990

13. The term structure of interest rates
    Chapter 13 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 1990, vol. 1, pp 627-722 View citations (140)
    See also Working Paper (1987)

1988

14. Portfolio Insurance and Other Investor Fashions as Factors in the 1987 Stock Market Crash
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, 1988, pp 287-297 View citations (20)

1980

15. Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?
    A chapter in Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, 1980, pp 117-167 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper (1979)