Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models

Ray Fair () and Robert Shiller

American Economic Review, 1990, vol. 80, issue 3, 375-89

Abstract: The information contained in one model's forecast compared to that in another can be assessed from a regression of actual values on predicted values from the two models. The authors do this for forecasts of real GNP growth rates for different pairs of models. The models include a structural model (the Fair model), various versions of the vector autoregressive model, and various versions of a model the authors call the "autoregressive components" model. The authors' procedure requires that forecasts make no use of future information and they have been careful to try to insure this, including using the version of the Fair model that existed in 1976, the beginning of their test period. Copyright 1990 by American Economic Association.

Date: 1990
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (248)

Downloads: (external link)
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%2819900 ... O%3B2-7&origin=repec full text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:80:y:1990:i:3:p:375-89

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/subscriptions

Access Statistics for this article

American Economic Review is currently edited by Esther Duflo

More articles in American Economic Review from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().