Details about Ray Fair

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu
Phone:	203-432-3715
Postal address:	Cowles Foundation Box 208281, Yale Station New Haven, CT 06520-8281
Workplace:	Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC) Economics Department, Yale University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Ray Fair.

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Working Papers

2010

1. Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (7)
2. Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
3. Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (5)
4. Has Macro Progressed?
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
5. Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)
   See also Chapter Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (1) (2010)

2008

6. Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
   Also in Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics (2008) View citations (1)
7. Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables
   Working Papers, Yale University, Department of Economics View citations (1)
   Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2008) View citations (1)

2007

8. A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?
   Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2007) View citations (2) (2007)
9. Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models
   Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
   Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2003) View citations (9)
   See also Journal Article Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter (2003) View citations (9) (2003)
10. Branch Rickey’s Equation Fifty Years Later
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
11. Estimated Age Effects in Baseball
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
    See also Journal Article Estimated Age Effects in Baseball, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter (2008) View citations (16) (2008)
12. Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (6)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2003) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2005) View citations (18) (2005)
13. Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model
    Economics Discussion Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) View citations (6)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2007) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model, Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) (2007) View citations (6) (2007)
14. Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
15. Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
16. Risk Aversion and Stock Prices
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2003)
17. Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2003)

2006

18. Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (4)

2005

19. College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
20. Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
21. Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2005) View citations (7) (2005)

2004

22. Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

2003

23. Events that Shook the Market
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    Also in Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management (2000) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Events That Shook the Market, The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press (2002) View citations (95) (2002)

2002

24. Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (3)
25. On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter (2002) View citations (16) (2002)

2001

26. Is There Empirical Support for the 'Modern' View of Macroeconomics?
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (4)
27. Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations, Computational Economics, Springer (2003) View citations (8) (2003)
28. Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2003) View citations (35) (2003)
29. The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford
    Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management
    See also Journal Article The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford, Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association (2003) (2003)

2000

30. Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (7)

1997

31. Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)

1996

32. Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Prices
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
33. Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
34. Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (4)

1995

35. Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1996) View citations (52) (1996)
36. Is monetary policy becoming less effective?
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1994) View citations (1)

1994

37. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)

1992

38. Estimates of the Bias of Lagged Dependent Variable Coefficient Estimates in Macroeconomic Equations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
39. The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (7)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1992) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics, Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (1992) View citations (9) (1992)

1991

40. Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
41. Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1989)
    See also Journal Article Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (1990) View citations (23) (1990)
42. How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1991) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1994) View citations (53) (1994)

1989

43. Does Monetary Policy Matter? Narrative Versus Structural Approaches
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
44. Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Estimation of polynomial distributed lags and leads with end point constraints, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1992) View citations (3) (1992)
45. Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1989) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1993) View citations (1) (1993)
46. The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (60)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1989) View citations (57)
    See also Journal Article The production-smoothing model is alive and well, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1989) View citations (57) (1989)
47. VAR Models as Structural Approximations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) View citations (1)

1988

48. Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) View citations (5)
49. The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1988) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1989) View citations (38) (1989)

1987

50. Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1987) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1991) View citations (109) (1991)
51. Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change
    Working Papers, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1987) View citations (4)
52. Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1987) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a macroeconometric model, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1988) View citations (1) (1988)
53. Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1986)
54. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1987) View citations (2)

1986

55. Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of Deficit Targeting
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
56. Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1986) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1988) View citations (52) (1988)
57. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1986)
58. International Evidence on the Demand for Money
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1986)
    See also Journal Article International Evidence on the Demand for Money, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1987) View citations (56) (1987)

1984

59. A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
60. A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
61. Effect of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1984) View citations (2)
62. Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1984) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (1984) (1984)
63. Excess Labor and the Business Cycle
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1984) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Excess Labor and the Business Cycle, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1985) View citations (30) (1985)
64. The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1984) View citations (1)

1981

65. A Comment on Feldstein's Fisher-Schultz Lecture
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
66. A Multicountry Econometric Model
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
67. Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1981) View citations (2)
68. Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1981) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1982) View citations (5) (1982)

1980

69. Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)
70. Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (40)
    Also in NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (1980) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1983) View citations (436) (1983)

1979

71. A Multicountry Econometric Model (Revised)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
72. Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Full-information estimates of a nonlinear macroeconometric model, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (1980) View citations (4) (1980)

1978

73. An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1979) View citations (23) (1979)
74. An Estimate of the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in a Macro-economic Model
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
75. Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (1980) View citations (52) (1980)

1977

76. A Model of the Balance of Payments
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A model of the balance of payments, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (1979) View citations (4) (1979)
77. An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1979) View citations (26) (1979)
78. Can the Government Affect Real Output?: A Critique of Models with Rational Expectations
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
79. On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (4)
80. Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
81. The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1978) View citations (42) (1978)

1976

82. A Model of the World Economy
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
83. A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1977) View citations (14) (1977)
84. A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article A Theory of Extramarital Affairs, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (1978) View citations (53) (1978)
85. The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1978) View citations (291) (1978)
86. The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
    See also Journal Article The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (1978) View citations (7) (1978)

1975

87. On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections
    Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University View citations (13)

1973

88. A Comparison of FIML and Robust Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (1)

Journal Articles

2008

1. Estimated Age Effects in Baseball
   Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2008, 4, (1), 41 View citations (16)
   See also Working Paper Estimated Age Effects in Baseball, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (2007) (2007)
2. Testing price equations
   European Economic Review, 2008, 52, (8), 1424-1437 View citations (17)

2007

3. A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?
   The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2007, 7, (1), 27 View citations (2)
   See also Working Paper A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (1) (2007)
4. Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model
   Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), 2007, 1, 1-52 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model, Economics Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (6) (2007)

2005

5. Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (4), 645-60 View citations (18)
   See also Working Paper Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2007) View citations (6) (2007)
6. Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy
   The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2005, 5, (1), 31 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (2005) View citations (7) (2005)

2003

7. Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models
   Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2003, 7, (4), 26 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2007) (2007)
8. Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations
   Computational Economics, 2003, 21, (3), 245-256 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2001) View citations (1) (2001)
9. Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 22, (3), 307-341 View citations (35)
   See also Working Paper Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2001) View citations (6) (2001)
10. The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford
    Eastern Economic Journal, 2003, 29, (2), 159-163
    See also Working Paper The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2001) (2001)

2002

11. Events That Shook the Market
    The Journal of Business, 2002, 75, (4), 713-732 View citations (95)
    See also Working Paper Events that Shook the Market, Yale School of Management Working Papers (2003) (2003)
12. On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2002, 2, (1), 1-21 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (2002) View citations (14) (2002)

2001

13. Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules
    Economic Policy Review, 2001, (Mar), 61-72 View citations (16)

2000

14. Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000, 82, (1), 64-71 View citations (86)

1999

15. Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?
    American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (2), 58-62 View citations (8)
16. Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999, 21, (1), 1-28 View citations (1)

1997

17. Response [Econometrics and Presidential Elections]
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997, 11, (3), 197-98

1996

18. Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, 11, (4), 431-35 View citations (2)
19. Econometrics and Presidential Elections
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1996, 10, (3), 89-102 View citations (72)
20. Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996, 38, (2), 173-193 View citations (52)
    See also Working Paper Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1995) View citations (1) (1995)

1994

21. How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, 76, (1), 103-18 View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?, NBER Working Papers (1991) View citations (2) (1991)

1993

22. Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993, 75, (1), 8-18 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1989) View citations (3) (1989)
23. Testing Macroeconomic Models
    American Economic Review, 1993, 83, (2), 287-93 View citations (16)
24. Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models
    Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 45, (2), 169-90 View citations (36)

1992

25. Estimation of polynomial distributed lags and leads with end point constraints
    Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 53, (1-3), 123-139 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints, NBER Technical Working Papers (1989) View citations (1) (1989)
26. The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics
    Proceedings, 1992, 133-157 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1992) View citations (7) (1992)

1991

27. Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations
    American Economic Review, 1991, 81, (5), 1276-94 View citations (109)
    See also Working Paper Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations, NBER Working Papers (1987) View citations (1) (1987)

1990

28. Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models
    American Economic Review, 1990, 80, (3), 375-89 View citations (246)
29. Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1990, 5, (4), 381-92 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations, NBER Technical Working Papers (1991) View citations (1) (1991)

1989

30. The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 71, (2), 325-31 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1988) View citations (3) (1988)
31. The production-smoothing model is alive and well
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, 24, (3), 353-370 View citations (57)
    See also Working Paper The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1989) View citations (60) (1989)

1988

32. Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale
    American Economic Review, 1988, 78, (4), 595-612 View citations (52)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale, NBER Working Papers (1986) View citations (2) (1986)
33. Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a macroeconometric model
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22, (2), 301-315 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1987) (1987)

1987

34. International Evidence on the Demand for Money
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987, 69, (3), 473-80 View citations (56)
    See also Working Paper International Evidence on the Demand for Money, NBER Working Papers (1986) View citations (2) (1986)
35. Properties of a multicountry econometric model
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 1987, 9, (1), 83-123

1985

36. Excess Labor and the Business Cycle
    American Economic Review, 1985, 75, (1), 239-45 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper Excess Labor and the Business Cycle, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1984) View citations (3) (1984)
37. Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom
    American Economic Review, 1985, 75, (2), 85-90

1984

38. Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 1984, 57-96
    See also Working Paper Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1984) View citations (2) (1984)

1983

39. Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models
    Econometrica, 1983, 51, (4), 1169-85 View citations (436)
    See also Working Paper Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1980) View citations (40) (1980)

1982

40. Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries
    Journal of Political Economy, 1982, 90, (3), 507-35 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1981) View citations (3) (1981)
41. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982, 64, (2), 322-25 View citations (28)

1981

42. Estimated Effects of the Oct. 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy
    American Economic Review, 1981, 71, (2), 160-65 View citations (1)

1980

43. Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models
    International Economic Review, 1980, 21, (2), 355-78 View citations (52)
    See also Working Paper Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1978) View citations (2) (1978)
44. Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models
    Econometrica, 1980, 48, (6), 1381-91 View citations (10)
45. Full-information estimates of a nonlinear macroeconometric model
    Journal of Econometrics, 1980, 13, (3), 269-291 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1979) View citations (1) (1979)

1979

46. A model of the balance of payments
    Journal of International Economics, 1979, 9, (1), 25-46 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper A Model of the Balance of Payments, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1977) View citations (1) (1977)
47. An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets
    American Economic Review, 1979, 69, (4), 539-52 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1977) View citations (1) (1977)
48. An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models
    Journal of Political Economy, 1979, 87, (4), 701-18 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1978) View citations (11) (1978)
49. On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies
    American Economic Review, 1979, 69, (2), 86-91 View citations (1)

1978

50. A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1978, 10, (4), 411-17 View citations (3)
51. A Theory of Extramarital Affairs
    Journal of Political Economy, 1978, 86, (1), 45-61 View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper A Theory of Extramarital Affairs, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1976) View citations (1) (1976)
52. The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1978, 60, (2), 159-73 View citations (291)
    See also Working Paper The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1976) View citations (2) (1976)
53. The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve
    Econometrica, 1978, 46, (5), 1165-79 View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1977) View citations (1) (1977)
54. The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance
    International Economic Review, 1978, 19, (2), 289-309 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1976) (1976)

1977

55. A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator
    Econometrica, 1977, 45, (7), 1723-27 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers (1976) View citations (1) (1976)

1974

56. An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model
    International Economic Review, 1974, 15, (2), 285-303 View citations (9)
57. Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study
    Econometrica, 1974, 42, (1), 177-90 View citations (16)

1973

58. A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models
    International Economic Review, 1973, 14, (2), 261-77 View citations (3)

1972

59. A Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Program
    Econometrica, 1972, 40, (4), 773
60. Disequilibrium in Housing Models
    Journal of Finance, 1972, 27, (2), 207-21 View citations (16)
61. Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-Regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1972, 54, (4), 444-49 View citations (4)
62. Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium
    Econometrica, 1972, 40, (3), 497-514 View citations (132)

1971

63. Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1971, 53, (2), 164-68 View citations (9)
64. The Determination of Yield Differentials between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1971, 3, (4), 733-49 View citations (8)

1970

65. Aggregate price changes and price expectations
    Review, 1970, 52, (Nov), 18-28
66. The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors
    Econometrica, 1970, 38, (3), 507-16 View citations (102)

Chapters

2010

1. Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits
   A chapter in Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 25, 2010, pp 89-108 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (2010) View citations (2) (2010)

1996

2. Computational methods for macroeconometric models
   Chapter 03 in Handbook of Computational Economics, 1996, vol. 1, pp 143-169 View citations (2)

1993

3. Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation
   A chapter in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, 1993, pp 157-178 View citations (21)

1986

4. Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models
   Chapter 33 in Handbook of Econometrics, 1986, vol. 3, pp 1979-1995 View citations (18)

1977

5. Announcement: A Program to Solve an Econometric Model
   A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 5, 1977, pp 652-655

1974

6. On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models
   A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, 1974, pp 667-677 View citations (11)
7. On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems
   A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, 1974, pp 135-154 View citations (4)

1973

8. Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-Regressive Residuals
   A chapter in Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 1, 1973, pp 17-28 View citations (5)