Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation

Ray Fair ()

No 111, NBER Technical Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper shows how probability questions can be answered within the context of macroeconometric models by using stochastic simulation. One can estimate, for example, the probability of a recession occurring within some fixed period in the future. Probability estimates are presented for two recessionary events and one inflationary event. An advantage of the present procedure is that the probabilities estimated from the stochastic simulation are objective in the sense that they are based on the use of estimated distributions. They are consistent with the probability structure of the model. This paper also shows that estimated probabilities can be used in the evaluation of a model, and an example of this type of evaluation is presented.

Date: 1991-08
Note: EFG
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Published as Business Cycles,Indicators and Forecasting, edited by James Stock and Mark Watson, Studies in Business Cycles Vol 28, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993
Published as Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation , Ray C. Fair. in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting , Stock and Watson. 1993

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