On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks

Ray Fair ()

The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2002, vol. 2, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: A popular model in the literature postulates an interest rate rule, a NAIRU price equation, and an aggregate demand equation in which aggregate demand depends on the real interest rate. In this model a positive inflation shock with the nominal interest rate held constant is explosive because it increases aggregate demand (because the real interest rate is lower), which increases inflation through the price equation, which further increases aggregate demand, and so on. In order for the model to be stable, the nominal interest rate must rise more than inflation, which means that the coefficient on inflation in the interest rate rule must be greater than one.

Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.2202/1534-6005.1045

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