The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models

Ray Fair ()

No 718, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: A more sophisticated expectational hypothesis than is traditionally used in the specification of macroeconometric models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z_{t} in forming their expectations for periods t+1 and beyond. These expectations may or may not be rational in the Muth sense. The results provide some evidence in favor of the more sophisticated hypothesis, but they are not strong enough to allow much weight to be put on the hypothesis as yet. The evidence in favor of the hypothesis is strongest for households' response to future wages and prices in their consumption and labor supply decisions and for the Fed's response to future inflation rates. The sensitivity of the policy properties of my macroeconometric model to the more sophisticated hypothesis is also examined in the paper. The properties are not sensitive for a policy action in which government expenditures are changed. They are somewhat sensitive for an action in which personal tax rates are changed. In the latter case the properties are also sensitive to whether or not the policy action is anticipated.

Keywords: Macroeconometric models; expectations; macro policy; rational expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 1984-05
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d07/d0718.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
Working Paper: The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models (1984)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:718

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
The price is None.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Brittany Ladd ().