Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

From Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA.
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2538: Immigration, Innovation, and the Geography of Growth

Costas Arkolakis, Sun Kyoung Lee and Michael Peters

2537: From Innovation to Speculation: AI and the Magnificent Seven

Rerotlhe B. Basele, Peter C.B. Phillips and Shuping Shi

2536: Offsetting Carbon with Lemons: Adverse Selection and Certification in the Voluntary Carbon Market

Vahideh Manshadi, Faidra Monachou and Ilan Morgenstern

2535: How Much Should a Conversational Recommender System Converse?

Akshit Kumar, Vahideh Manshadi and Akhilesh Tumu

2533: How Much and How Fast Do Investors Respond to Equity Premium Changes? Evidence from Wealth Taxation

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso and Marius Ring

2532: Beyond Exposure: Predicting AI Adoption Based On Comparative Advantage

Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh, Mar’a Alejandra Rodr’guez Vega and Laura Veldkamp

2531: Towards a Methodology for Measuring Rental Property Ownership in the United States

Stephanie Kestelman, Rebecca Diamond, John Eric Humphries, Kate Pennington, Winnie van Dijk and John Voorheis

2530: Learning Through Imitation: An Experiment

Marina Agranov, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Philipp Strack and Omer Tamuz

2529: From People's War to People's Rule: Rebel Governance and the Foundations of Inclusive Democracy

Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad Artiz Prillaman, Deepak Singhania and Apurva Subedi

2528: The Macroeconomics of Intergenerational Mental Health Dynamics

Boaz Abramson, Job Boerma, Diego Daruich and Aleh Aleh

2527: Class Peers As Competitors And Educators: The Consequences Of Rank-Based Academic Rewards

Mark Rosenzweig and Bing Xu

2525: Efficient Estimation in Infinite Dimensional GMM

Jin Seo Cho and Peter C. B. Phillips

2524: Regional Economic Impacts and Emission Responses under Solar Radiation Modification

Jenny Bjordal, Evelien van Dijk, Henri Cornec, Anthony A. Smith, Jr. and Trude Storelvmo

2523: Bootstrapping with AI/ML-generated labels

Timothy Christensen, S’lvia Gon alves and Benoit Perron

2522: Cross-Border Product Adoption: Individual Imports, Migrant Networks, and Domestic Retailers

David Argente, Esteban Mendez and Diana Van Patten

2521: Capital Flows and the Global Collateral Cycle

Ana Fostel, John John and Gregory Phelan

2520: Organizational Targets in General Equilibrium

Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis and Karthik A. Sastry

2519: Employment Preferences of Favela Residents

Mayara Felix, Beatriz Marcoje, Ieda Matavelli and Maria Clara Rodrigues

2518: Early Childcare Attendance and Cognitive Skills in Adolescence

Ingvild AlmŒs, Nina Drange, Costas Meghir and Henrik Daae Zachrisson

2517: Wage Gap Disclosure in the Tropics

Pablo Castro, Mayara Felix, Ieda Matavelli and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

2516: Pay-Per-Crawl Pricing for AI: The LM-Tree Agent

Richard Archer, Soheil Ghili and Nima Haghpanah

2515: Growth With New And Old Technologies

Bernardo Ribeiro

2515: Growth With New And Old Technologies

Bernardo Ribeiro

2515: Growth with New and Old Technologies

Bernardo Ribeiro

2514: Training Language Models for Bilateral Trade with Private Information

Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Xinyang Hu, Chuanhao Li and Zhuoran Yang

2513: From Conversations to Mechanisms: Aligning Advertiser Incentives in AI-Powered Product Recommendations

Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul DŸtting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu and Song Zuo

2512: Soft-Floor Auctions: Harnessing Regret to Improve Efficiency and Revenue

Dirk Bergemann, Kevin Breuer, Peter Cramton, Jack Hirsch, Yero Ndiaye and Axel Ockenfels

2511: First Proof Solutions and Comments

Mohammed Abouzaid, Andrew Blumberg, Martin Hairer, Joe Kileel, Tamara Kolda, Paul Nelson, Dan Spielman, Nikhil Srivastava, Rachel Ward, Shmuel Weinberger and Lauren Williams

2510: Trade, Labor Market Concentration, and Wages

Mayara Felix

2509: Subjective Earnings and Employment Dynamics

Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

2508: Willingness To Travel With Endogenous Distance: Evidence From The Changing Retail Landscape

Yue Cao, Judith A. Chevalier, Jessie Handbury, Hayden Parsley and Kevin R. Williams

2507: Triple/Double-Debiased Lasso

Denis Chetverikov, Jesper R.-V. S¿rensen and Aleh Tsyvinski

2506: Stochastic Optimization and Coupling

Frank Yang and Kai Hao Yang

2505: The Skill Premium in Times of Rapid Technological Change

Tarek Alexander Hassan, Aakash Kalyani and Pascual Restrepo

2504: Identifying Common Trend Determinants in Panel Data

Yoonseok Lee, Peter Phillips, Suyong Song and Donggyu Sul

2503: The Changing Landscape of International Development: An Introduction

Pascaline Dupas, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Rohini Pande

2502: Menu Pricing of Large Language Models

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Alex Smolin

2501: Pricing and Production Without the Invisible Hand

Joel Flynn, George Nikolakoudis and Karthik A. Sastry

2500: Delegation and Verification Under AI

Lingxiao Huang, Wenyang Xiao and Nisheeth Vishnoi

2499: The Geometry of Learning under AI Delegation

Lingxiao Huang and Nisheeth Vishnoi

2498: Screening and Segmenting: A Consumer Surplus Perspective

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Michael C. Wang

2498: Screening and Segmenting: A Consumer Surplus Perspective

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Michael Wang

2497: On Local Overidentification and Efficiency Gains in Modern Causal Inference and Data Combination

Xiaohong Chen and Haitian Xie

2496: Initial-Condition-Robust Inference in Autoregressive Models

Donald Andrews, Ming Li and Yapeng Zheng

2495: How Wasteful is Signaling?

Alex Frankel and Navin Kartik

2495: How Wasteful is Signaling?

Alex Frankel and Navin Kartik

2494: Information Design and Mechanism Design: An Integrated Framework

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Stephen Morris

2493: The Trade-off between Quality and Quantity: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Tutoring

Rohen Shah

2492: Extreme Points and Majorization

Andreas Kleiner, Benny Moldovanu and Philipp Strack

2491: The First 1000 Days and Beyond: The Process of Child Development

Orazio Attanasio

2490: What Can Trends In Emergency Department Visits Tell Us About Child Mental Health?

Han Choi, Adriana Corredor-Waldron, Janet Currie and Chris Felton

2489: Drivers of Racial Differences in C-Sections

Adriana Corredor-Waldron, Janet Currie and Molly Schnell

2488: Doctor Decision Making and Patient Outcomes

Janet Currie, Bentley MacLeod and Kate Musen

2487: The Hidden Cost Of Firearm Violence On Infants In Utero

Janet Currie, Bahadõr Dursun, Michael Hatch and Erdal Tekin

2486: Clean Rides, Healthy Lives: The Impact of Electric Vehicle Adoption on Air Quality and Infant Health

Cavit Baran, Janet Currie, Bahadõr Dursun and Erdal Tekin

2485: Human Capital and Development

Philippe Aghion, Ingvild AlmŒs and Costas Meghir

2484: Information Revelation in Constant-Sum Games: Elections and Beyond

Navin Kartik, Francesco Squintani and Katrin Tinn

2483: Replacement and Reputation

Navin Kartik, Elliot Lipnowski and Harry Pei

2482: Wedges: A Microeconomic Perspective on Misallocation

Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Danial Lashkari and Eric Verhoogen

2481: Information Without Rents: Mechanism Design Without Expected Utility

Ernesto Rivera Mora and Philipp Strack

2480: Multidimensional Sorting: Comparative Statics

Job Boerma, Andrea Ottolini and Aleh Tsyvinski

2479: Procurement without Priors: A Simple Mechanism and its Notable Performance

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Stephen Morris

2478: Estimating flexible income processes from subjective expectations data: Evidence from India and Colombia

Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Sam Crossman and V’ctor Sancibri‡n

2477: New Measures for Richer Theories: Some Thoughts and an Example

Orazio Attanasio, V’ctor Sancibri‡n and Federica Ambrosio

2476: ReLU-Based and DNN-Based Generalized Maximum Score Estimators

Xiaohong Chen, Wayne Yuan Gao and Likang Wen

2475: The Economics of Professional Decision-Making: Can Artificial Intelligence Reduce Decision Uncertainty?

W Bentley MacLeod

2474: Regulating Privacy Policies on Digital Platforms

Michele Bisceglia, Alessandro Bonatti and Fiona Scott Morton

2473: Probability Pricing

Eduardo D‡vila, Cecilia Parlatore and Ansgar Walther

2472: SLIM: Stochastic Learning and Inference in Overidentified Models

Xiaohong Chen, Min Seong Kim, Sokbae (Simon) Lee, Myung Hwan Seo and Myunghyun Song

2471: The Production Side of Exporting: Firms and Locations

Jinhu Li, Andrew B. Bernard and Teresa C. Fort

2471: Optimization via Strategic Law of Large Numbers

Xiaohong Chen, Zengjing Chen, Wayne Gao, Xiaodong Yan and Guodong Zhang

2470: Efficient Difference-in-Differences and Event Study Estimators

Xiaohong Chen, Pedro SantÕAnna and Haitian Xie

2469: Quantile-Optimal Policy Learning under Unmeasured Confounding

Zhongren Chen, Siyu Chen, Zhengling Qi, Xiaohong Chen and Zhuoran Yang

2468: Worker Rights in Collective Bargaining

Benjamin Arold, Elliott Ash, W. Bentley MacLeod and Suresh Naidu

2467: Local Overidentification and Efficiency Gains in Modern Causal Inference and Data Combination

Xiaohong Chen and Haitian Xie

2466: Safely Exploring Novel Actions in Recommender Systems via Deployment-Efficient Policy Learning

Haruka Kiyohara, Yusuke Narita, Yuta Saito, Kei Tateno and Takuma Udagawa

2465: Disclosure and the Pace of Drug Development

Colleen Cunnningham, Florian Ederer, Charles Hodgson and Zhichun Wang

2464: Edgeworth Expansions in Curved Cross Section Autoregression

Peter Phillips

2463: Optimal Estimation In A Multicointegrated System

Igor Kheifets and Peter Phillips

2462: The Changing Nature of International Trade and Its Implications for Development

Pinelopi Goldberg and Michele Ruta

2461: College Application Mistakes and the Design of Information Policies at Scale

Tom‡s Larroucau, Ignacio Rios, Ana•s Fabre and Christopher Neilson

2460: Large-Scale Curve Time Series with Common Stochastic Trends

Degui Li, Yuning Li and Peter Phillips

2459: Growth with Firm-to-Firm Trade

Samuel Kortum and Bernardo Ribeiro

2458: Pipeline vs. Choice: The Global Gender Gap in STEM Applications

Isaac Ahimbisibwe, Adam Altjmed, Georgy Artemov, Andres Barrios-Fernández, Aspasia Bizopoulou, Martti Kaila, Jin-Tan Liu, Rigissa Megalokonomou, JosŽ Montalban, Christopher Neilson, Jintao Sun, Sebastian Otero and Xiaoyang Ye

2457: Decomposing Trends in the Gender Gap for Highly Educated Workers

Joseph Altonji, John Humphries, Yagmur Yuksel and Ling Zhong

2456: Offline Contextual Bandits in the Presence of New Actions

Ren Kishimoto, Tatsuhiro Shimizu, Kazuki Kawamura, Takanori Muroi, Yusuke Narita, Yuki Sasamoto, Kei Tateno, Takuma Udagawa and Yuta Saito

2455: Order Statistics as Finite Mixtures

JosŽ-Antonio Esp’n-S‡nchez, Charles Hodgson and Kevin OÕNeill

2454: Cross Section Curve Autoregression: The Unit Root Case

Peter Phillips and Liang Jiang

2453: Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data

Steven Berry, Christian Cox and Philip Haile

2452: Optimal Management of Public Energy Communities: Investment Strategies and Welfare Maximization

Dirk Bergemann, Marina Bertolini, Marta Castellini, Michele Moretto and Sergio Vergalli

2451: Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias

Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky and Winnie van Dijk

2450: Thin Sets Are Not Equally Thin: Minimax Learning of Submanifold Integrals

Xiaohong Chen and Wayne Yuan Gao

2450: Semiparametric Learning of Integral Functionals on Submanifolds

Xiaohong Chen and Wayne Yuan Gao

2449: A Stairway to Success: How Parenting Shapes Culture and Social Stratification

Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Fabrizio Zilibotti

2448: Tariffs and Trade Deficits

Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum and Fernando Parro

2448: Tariffs and Trade Deficits

Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum and Fernando Parro

2447: Non-Discriminatory Personalized Pricing

Philipp Strack and Kai Hao Yang

2447: Non-Discriminatory Personalized Pricing

Philipp Strack and Kai Hao Yang

2446: Complementarities in High School and College Investments

John Humphries, Juanna Schr¿ter Joensen and Gregory Veramendi

2445: The Price of Intelligence: How Should Socially-minded Firms Price and Deploy AI?

Nils Lehr and Pascual Restrepo