Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

From Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA.
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1357: Macroeconomic Strategy in Wartime

James Tobin

1356: Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance: A Subsampling Approach

Oliver Linton, Esfandiar Maasoumi and Yoon-Jae Whang

1355: The Health of Nations: The Contribution of Improved Health to Living Standards

William Nordhaus

1354: Highway Franchising and Real Estate Values

Eduardo Engel, Ronald Fischer and Alexander Galetovic

1353: How to Auction an Essential Facility When Underhand Integration Is Possible

Eduardo Engel, Ronald Fischer and Alexander Galetovic

1352: I'll See It When I Believe It - A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency

Leeat Yariv

1351: Valid Asymptotic Expansions for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Parameter of a Stationary, Gaussian, Strongly Dependent Process

Offer Lieberman, Judith Rousseau and David M. Zucker

1350: An Optimal Fair Job Assignment Problem

Zaifu Yang

1349: Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate GARCH Processes

F. Comte and Offer Lieberman

1348: Penalised Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Fractional Guassian Processes

Offer Lieberman

1347: On Fair Allocations and Indivisibilities

Ning Sun and Zaifu Yang

1346: Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered

Pradeep Dubey and John Geanakoplos

1346: Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered

Pradeep Dubey and John Geanakoplos

1345: Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models

Ray Fair

1344: Believe and Let Believe: Axiomatic Foundations for Belief Dependent Utility Functionals

Leeat Yariv

1343: Money and the Monetization of Credit

Martin Shubik

1342: A Derivation of Expected Utility Maximization in the Context of a Game

Itzhak Gilboa and David Schmeidler

1341: Subjective Distributions

Itzhak Gilboa and David Schmeidler

1340: Cognitive Foundations of Probability

Itzhak Gilboa and David Schmeidler

1339: Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach

Itzhak Gilboa and David Schmeidler

1338: The Optimal Concentration of Creditors

Ivo Welch and Arturo Bris

1337: Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market

Steven Berry, James Levinsohn and Ariel Pakes

1336: Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities

David Frankel, Stephen Morris and Ady Pauzner

1335: Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market

Karl Case, John Quigley and Robert Shiller

1334: Higher-order Improvements of the Parametric Bootstrap for Markov Processes

Donald Andrews

1333: Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy

Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth and John Geanakoplos

1332: Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models

Federico M. Bandi and Peter Phillips

1331: Nonlinear Instrumental Variable Estimation of an Autoregression

Peter Phillips, Joon Park and Yoosoon Chang

1330: Bootstrapping Spurious Regression

Peter Phillips

1329: A CUSUM Test for Cointegration Using Regression Residuals

Zhijie Xiao and Peter Phillips

1328: Egalitarianism against the Veil of Ignorance

John Roemer

1327: Value and Politics

John Roemer

1326: What We Owe Our Children, They Their Children

John Roemer and Roberto Veneziani

1325: The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited

Ivo Welch

1324: The Progress of Computing

William Nordhaus

1323: Information Structures in Optimal Auctions

Dirk Bergemann and Martin Pesendorfer

1322: Compromises Between Cardinality and Ordinality in Preference Theory and Social Choice

Michael Mandler

1321: Exchange Rates and Casualties During the First World War

George Hall

1320: Accessible Pareto-Improvements: Using Market Information to Reform Inefficiencies

Michael Mandler

1319: If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets

Lawrence Blume and David Easley

1318: Perfectly Fair Allocations with Indivisibilities

Ning Sun and Zaifu Yang

1317: A Practical Competitive Market Model for Indivisible Commo

Zaifu Yang

1316: Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium

John Geanakoplos

1316: Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium

John Geanakoplos

1315: Insurance Contracts Designed by Competitive Pooling

Pradeep Dubey and John Geanakoplos

1314: Social Security Investment in Equities

Peter Diamond and John Geanakoplos

1313: International Finance in General Equilibrium

John Geanakoplos and Dimitrios Tsomocos

1312: The CNBC Effect: Welfare Effects of Public Information

Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin

1311: Nonparametric Estimation of a Multifactor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model: An Integrated Approach

Andrew Jeffrey, Oliver Linton, Thong Nguyen and Peter Phillips

1310: Regression with Slowly Varying Regressors

Peter Phillips

1309: Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models of the Short Term Interest Rate

Jun Yu and Peter Phillips

1308: Second Order Expansions for the Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Fractional Difference Parameter

Offer Lieberman and Peter Phillips

1307: On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs

Antonio Bernardo and Ivo Welch

1306: An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness

David Hirshleifer and Ivo Welch

1305: Signalling and Default: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered

Pradeep Dubey and John Geanakoplos

1304: Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium

Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos and Martin Shubik

1304: Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium

Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos and Martin Shubik

1303: Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion

Robert Shiller

1302: Entry and Vertical Differentiation

Dirk Bergemann and Juuso Välimäki

1301: Fiscal Policy: Its Macroeconomics in Perspective

James Tobin

1300: On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks

Ray Fair

1299: Middle Men Versus Market Makers: A Theory of Competitive Exchange

John Rust and George Hall

1298: Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Ray Fair

1297: Monotone Preferences over Information

Juan Dubra and Federico Echenique

1296: Measurability Is Not about Information

Juan Dubra and Federico Echenique

1295: Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update

John Campbell and Robert Shiller

1294: Expected Utility Theory without the Completeness Axiom

Juan Dubra, Fabio Maacheroni and Efe Ok

1293: Local Polynomial Whittle Estimation of Long-range Dependence

Donald Andrews and Yixiao Sun

1292: The Financing of Innovation: Learning and Stopping

Dirk Bergemann and Ulrich Hege

1292: The Financing of Innovation: Learning and Stopping

Dirk Bergemann and Ulrich Hege

1291: Electoral Rules and the Emergence of New Issue Dimensions

Estelle Cantillon

1290: A Computational Analysis of the Core of a Trading Economy with Three Competitive Equilibria and a Finite Number of Traders

Martin Shubik and Alok Kumar

1289: The Uses of Teaching Games in Game Theory Classes and Some Experimental Games

Martin Shubik

1288: Weighted Minimum Mean-Square Distance from Independence Estimation

Donald Brown and Marten H. Wegkamp

1287: Multifractal Products of Cylindrical Rules

Julien Barral and Benoît Mandelbrot

1286: New Data and Output Concepts for Understanding Productivity Trends

William Nordhaus

1285: A Graphical Analysis of Some Basic Results in Social Choice

Estelle Cantillon and Antonio Rangel

1284: Productivity Growth and the New Economy

William Nordhaus

1283: Structural Change in Tail Behavior and the Asian Financial Crisis

Carmela E. Quintos, Zhenhong Fan and Peter Phillips

1282: Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth

William Nordhaus

1281: Does Democracy Engender Justice?

John Roemer

1280: Unilateral Deviation with Perfect Information

Pradeep Dubey and Ori Haimanko

1279: The Effect of Bidders' Asymmetries on Expected Revenue in Auctions

Estelle Cantillon

1278: Forecasting New Zealand's Real GDP

Aaron Schiff and Peter Phillips

1277: Entry and Vertical Differentiation

Dirk Bergemann and Juuso Välimäki

1276: Investment Incentives in Procurement Auctions

Leandro Arozamena and Estelle Cantillon

1275: Global Games: Theory and Applications

Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin

1275: Global Games: Theory and Applications

Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin

1274: GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data

Hyungsik Moon and Peter Phillips

1273: Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders

Giancarlo Corsetti, Amil Dasgupta, Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin

1272: How to Compute Equilibrium Prices in 1891

William C. Brainard and Herbert Scarf

1271: Faulty Communication

Stephen Morris

1271: Faulty Communication

Stephen Morris

1270: Optimal Inventory Policies When Sales Are Discretionary

Herbert Scarf

1269: Equivalence of the Higher-order Asymptotic Efficiency of k-step and Extremum Statistics

Donald Andrews

1268: Savings and Portfolio Choice in a Two-Period Two-Asset Model

Saku Aura, Peter Diamond and John Geanakoplos

1267: Pooled Log Periodogram Regression

Katsumi Shimotsu and Peter Phillips

1266: Local Whittle Estimation in Nonstationary and Unit Root Cases

Katsumi Shimotsu and Peter Phillips

1265: Modified Local Whittle Estimation of the Memory Parameter in the Nonstationary Case

Katsumi Shimotsu and Peter Phillips

1264: Trending Time Series and Macroeconomic Activity: Some Present and Future Challenges

Peter Phillips