Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale

Ray Fair (ray.fair@yale.edu), Matthew Shapiro and Kathryn Dominguez

No 2095, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it Have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard Economic Service and Yale's Irving Fisher during 1929 and the early 1930's. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters are subjected to modern statistical analysis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. We find that both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic, yet nothing in the data suggests that the optimism was unwarranted.

Date: 1986-12
Note: EFG
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Published as The American Economic Review, Vol. 78, No. 4, pp. 595-612, (September 1988).
Published as Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.

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