Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation

Ray Fair ()

No 1377, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Three models of price and wage behavior are estimated and tested in this paper. Model 1 is one in which the long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation is in terms of price levels; Model 2 is one in which the trade-off is in terms of rates of change; and Model 3 is one in which there is no long-run trade-off. The evidence favors Model 1 over Models 2 and 3. The comparison between Models 2 and 3 is inconclusive. The short-run trade-offs are greater for Model 1 than for Models 2 and 3. The fact that Model 3 did not do particularly well is evidence against the Friedman-Phelps proposition of no long-run trade-off.

Date: 1984-06
Note: EFG
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Published as Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.

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Journal Article: Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation (1984)
Working Paper: Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation (1984)
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