Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts

Marshall Burke (), John Dykema (), David B. Lobell (), Edward Miguel and Shanker Satyanath ()
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Marshall Burke: Stanford University
John Dykema: Harvard University
David B. Lobell: Stanford University
Shanker Satyanath: New York University

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, vol. 97, issue 2, 461-471

Abstract: Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an important policy parameter. Incorporating climate uncertainty into future economic impact assessments will be critical for providing the best possible information on potential impacts. © 2015 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keywords: climate change; economic outcomes; public policy; temperature; rainfall changes; projections; misleading; climate uncertainty; climate impacts; policy parameter; economic impact assessments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A00 B00 Q50 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (95)

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Working Paper: Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts (2015)
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