Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts

Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David B Lobell, Edward Miguel and Shanker Satyanath

Department of Economics, Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley

Abstract: Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an important policy parameter. Incorporating climate uncertainty into future economic impact assessments will be critical for providing the best possible information on potential impacts.

Keywords: Climate-Related Exposures and Conditions; Generic health relevance; Climate Action; Applied Economics; Econometrics; Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-05-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (83)

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