The Effect of COVID-19 on Poverty-Alleviated Households: Evidence from J City, China

Xun Li, Yiduo Li, Yuankun Li and Rigoberto Lopez

Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2025, vol. 73, issue 4, 2105 - 2130

Abstract: This paper estimates the causal effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the per capita income of poverty-alleviated households (PAHs). Using administrative tracking panel data from a Chinese city, we leverage quasi-experimental variation in county-level pandemic deaths and policies. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the income of PAHs by nearly 14.78%. Additionally, each confirmed COVID-19 case was associated with a 2.02% reduction in income. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the negative effect is more pronounced among households with less education and those that had recently overcome poverty. Finally, our findings highlight the effectiveness of China’s industrial-assistance policies, which have significantly mitigated the negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the income of PAHs.

Date: 2025
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