Migration, Marriage, and Counterfactual Spouses

Simone Bertoli, David McKenzie and Elie Murard

Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2026, vol. 74, issue 3, 935 - 969

Abstract: A standard view in the migration literature is that of a fixed family sending off a migrant who may leave his or her spouse and children behind. We show empirically that changing marital status after migration is widespread for migrants moving from developing countries to the United States, so that the family unit itself changes with migration. Only one-third of ever-married adult migrants are currently married to a spouse they wed before migration. The variance of spousal characteristics is higher for migrants than nonmigrants. Using a survey experiment with young unmarried Mexican men, we find that they have more uncertainty about the characteristics of their future spouses should they migrate than if they were to stay at home, and that priming them to think about marriage reduces their expressed likelihood of migrating. We draw out implications of these counterfactual spouses for empirical research on migration decisions and effects and for migration policy.

Date: 2026
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