Spatial Clustering of Natural Disasters, Selection in Migration, and Economic Outcomes

Junni Pan

Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2026, vol. 75, issue 1, 431 - 461

Abstract: This paper shows that natural disasters with higher spatial clustering are associated with positive selection in migration. Focusing on extreme precipitation events in rural Chinese counties, I analyze their effects using census and rainfall data within a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that natural disasters significantly increase out-migration, primarily by worsening local economic conditions. More spatially clustered disasters induce a stronger response from younger, male, and better-educated individuals, who are associated with longer migration distances and better economic outcomes. A migration decision model suggests that more spatially clustered disasters may exacerbate inequalities in mobility. Targeted subsidies for individuals with lower productivity and higher migration costs could help promote more equitable access to economic opportunities.

Date: 2026
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