Are Routine Jobs Moving South? Evidence from Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment in the United States and Mexico

Guido Matias Cortes and Diego M. Morris

Journal of Human Capital, 2025, vol. 19, issue 2, 346 - 382

Abstract: Employment in middle-wage jobs has declined in the United States over recent decades. At the same time, US trade with developing countries such as Mexico has intensified. We analyze whether the loss of middle-wage employment in the United States can be attributed to increasing trade with Mexico. We do this by contrasting the observed changes in employment across 175 detailed occupational categories in the two countries and find that, with few exceptions, occupations that declined in the United States have also declined in Mexico. The evidence is inconsistent with the hypothesis that trade between the United States and Mexico is a primary driver of the decline of middle-wage employment in the United States.

Date: 2025
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