The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy

Ozkan Eren, Michael Lovenheim and H. Naci Mocan

Journal of Labor Economics, 2022, vol. 40, issue 2, 361 - 395

Abstract: We present the first analysis of the effect of grade retention on adult criminal convictions, exploiting test cutoffs for ninth-grade promotion in Louisiana. Eighth-grade retention increases the likelihood of violent crime conviction by 1.05 percentage points (58.44%) and increases the number of violent crime convictions at first conviction. The effects are likely driven by declines in high school peer quality and reduced educational investments that result in lower noncognitive skill acquisition. Extrapolating effects away from the cutoff shows that our results are generalizable to a larger group of low-performing students and are evident for both property and drug crimes.

Date: 2022
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Related works:
Working Paper: The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy (2020)
Working Paper: The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy (2018)
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