Cohort Size and the Marriage Market: Explaining Nearly a Century of Changes in US Marriage Rates

Mary Ann Bronson and Maurizio Mazzocco

Journal of Labor Economics, 2024, vol. 42, issue 3, 877 - 920

Abstract: We document that the US marriage market is characterized by two systematic empirical patterns. First, there is a quantitatively large, strong, and persistent negative relationship between changes in cohort size and marriage rates of women. Second, the same negative correlation holds for men. We then establish the features a model should possess to generate these patterns. A standard matching model with search frictions is rejected by the data because it produces a negative relationship for women but a positive relationship for men. We generalize the standard model to show under what conditions it rationalizes both patterns.

Date: 2024
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