Immigrating into a Recession: Evidence from Family Migrants to the United States

Toman Barsbai, Andreas Steinmayr and Christoph Winter

Journal of Labor Economics, 2025, vol. 43, issue 3, 843 - 883

Abstract: We analyze the impact of economic conditions at arrival on the economic integration of family-sponsored migrants in the United States. A 1 percentage point higher unemployment rate at arrival decreases annual wage income by 4% in the short run and 2% in the longer run. The loss in wage income results primarily from lower hourly wages due to occupational downgrading. Migrant and family networks help mitigate the negative labor market effects. Migrants who arrive during a recession take up occupations with higher concentrations of fellow countrypeople and are more likely to reside with family members, potentially reducing their geographical mobility.

Date: 2025
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