Heterogeneous Impacts of Sentencing Decisions

Andrew Jordan, Ezra Karger and Derek Neal

Journal of Labor Economics, 2025, vol. 43, issue 4, 1005 - 1034

Abstract: We examine 70,581 felony court cases filed in Chicago, Illinois, from 1990 to 2007. We exploit case randomization to assess the impact of judge assignment and sentencing decisions on the arrival of new charges. We estimate separate treatment and outcome equations for first and repeat offenders. In marginal cases, incarceration creates large and lasting reductions in recidivism among first offenders. Yet among marginal repeat offenders, incarceration creates no lasting reductions in the incidence of new felony charges. Our results raise concerns about the ubiquity of sentencing rules that recommend or dictate relative leniency for first offenders.

Date: 2025
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