Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence Using a Partially Precommitted Analysis Plan

Jeffrey Clemens and Michael R. Strain

Journal of Labor Economics, 2026, vol. 44, issue 4, 1117 - 1147

Abstract: Through an analysis of minimum wages, we explore the prospects for harnessing the key benefits of preanalysis plans (i.e., reductions in p-hacking) while mitigating their costs (i.e., reductions in practicability) when used in nonexperimental settings. Our precommitted analyses emphasize heterogeneity in the minimum wage’s effects. We estimate that large recent minimum wage increases reduced employment among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just over 2.5 percentage points, with implied elasticities that are above the consensus range from recent literature reviews. Smaller increases, by contrast, have effects that are statistically indistinguishable from zero.

Date: 2026
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