Net Migration and State Labor Market Dynamics

Joshua Hojvat Gallin
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Joshua Hojvat Gallin: Federal Reserve Board

Journal of Labor Economics, 2004, vol. 22, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: Existing empirical estimates of net migration models are not identified because they lack an explicit measure of expected future conditions. I find that using actual one-period-ahead net migration at the state level to control for expectations reduces the strength of the relationship between current wages and net migration by more than one-third. I use the case of Michigan to show how existing empirical models mischaracterize the response of migration to shocks that are expected to be transitory. I add migration to a labor market model and simulate responses to permanent and transitory demand shocks.

Date: 2004
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