Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns
João Gomes (),
Leonid Kogan and
Motohiro Yogo
Journal of Political Economy, 2009, vol. 117, issue 5, 941 - 986
Abstract:
The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable‐good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input‐output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we construct portfolios of durable‐good, nondurable‐good, and service producers. In the cross section, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the service portfolio earns a risk premium exceeding 4 percent annually. In the time series, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the market portfolio earns a countercyclical risk premium. We explain these findings in a general equilibrium asset‐pricing model with endogenous production.
Date: 2009
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Working Paper: Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns (2007) 
Working Paper: Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns (2007) 
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