Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark W. Watson

Journal of Political Economy, 2022, vol. 130, issue 12, 3286 - 3333

Abstract: We describe how capital accumulation and the network structure of US production interact to amplify the effects of sectoral trend growth rates in total factor productivity and labor on trend GDP (gross domestic product) growth. We derive expressions that conveniently summarize this long-run amplification effect by way of sectoral multipliers. We estimate that sector-specific factors have historically accounted for approximately three-fourths of long-run changes in GDP growth. Trend GDP growth fell by nearly 3 percentage points over the postwar period, with especially significant contributions from the Construction sector in 1950–80 and the Durable Goods sector in 2000–2018. No sector has contributed any steady significant increase to the trend growth rate of GDP in the past 70 years.

Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/720763 (application/pdf)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/720763 (text/html)
Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

Related works:
Working Paper: Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends (2022)
Working Paper: Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends (2021)
Working Paper: Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends (2019)
Working Paper: Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/720763

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Political Economy from University of Chicago Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Journals Division ().