A Structural Meta-Analysis of Welfare Reform Experiments and Their Impacts on Children

Joseph Mullins

Journal of Political Economy, 2026, vol. 134, issue 1, 435 - 477

Abstract: Using a model of maternal labor supply and investment in children, this paper synthesizes the findings from three separate welfare reform experiments across six sites. The proposed model maps variation in experimental design to parameters that define labor supply behavior, childcare use, and the importance of money and childcare arrangements in the development of child skills. The estimation procedure—which aggregates available evidence to identify the model’s key causal parameters—amounts to a structural meta-analysis. A number of counterfactuals underscore the utility of this model-based approach for understanding the mechanisms behind treatment effects and the roles played by heterogeneity and selection in shaping impacts.

Date: 2026
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