EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?

John Cochrane ()

Journal of Political Economy, 1988, vol. 96, issue 5, 893-920

Abstract: This paper presents a measure of the persistence of fluctuations in gross national product (GNP) based on the variance of its long differences. That measure finds little long-term persistence in GNP. Previous research on this question found a great deal of persistence in GNP, suggesting models such as a random walk. A reconciliation of this paper's results with previous research shows that conventional criteria for time-series model building can produce misleading estimates of persistence. Copyright 1988 by University of Chicago Press.

Date: 1988
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (510) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261569 full text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. See http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE for details.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:96:y:1988:i:5:p:893-920

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Political Economy from University of Chicago Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Journals Division ().

 
Page updated 2019-08-20
Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:96:y:1988:i:5:p:893-920